A post in which I discuss the statistics of Progress, Progress Moves and Challenge Ranks in the context of that...
A post in which I discuss the statistics of Progress, Progress Moves and Challenge Ranks in the context of that wonderful optional rule, Scene Challenges.
I used a Python script to run a crude Monte Carlo analysis to simulate 10,000,000 scene challenges, 40% of which were randomised by trait, and the others using a fixed trait. Because, geek.
TL;DR - The borderline between Dangerous and Formidable is pretty much the point at which you're more likely to failure than succeed. Proceed with caution.
https://phophosolo.home.blog/2019/01/21/the-statistics-of-progress-in-ironsworn-scene-challenges/
I used a Python script to run a crude Monte Carlo analysis to simulate 10,000,000 scene challenges, 40% of which were randomised by trait, and the others using a fixed trait. Because, geek.
TL;DR - The borderline between Dangerous and Formidable is pretty much the point at which you're more likely to failure than succeed. Proceed with caution.
https://phophosolo.home.blog/2019/01/21/the-statistics-of-progress-in-ironsworn-scene-challenges/
You sir, are my kind of geek. Thank you.
ReplyDeleteThe warning about epic scenes has me shaken, guess I need to guard against generating those at home (I planned to use scene challenges to close dimensional rift things)
ReplyDeleteMatt Horam Those stats scare me, too. For those who haven't seen it: Epic Scene Challenges have very low likelihood of success, even if you can use a +3 Trait with an add of +2 for every roll (narratively, you shouldn't be able to do this).
ReplyDeleteYeah, Scene Challenge ranks aren't quite the same as standard progress tracks. The difference is in the countdown. In an epic quest or journey, you don't have countdown pressure apart from your various tracks and debilities (which can be, for the most part, refreshed). In a scene challenge, you have the pressure of a finite number of actions before you have to resolve it.
ReplyDeleteI do make note of this in the book where I say "A typical challenge is dangerous. Make it formidable if you are at a disadvantage, or troublesome if you have clear advantage. An extreme challenge is very tough to overcome, and an epic challenge is nearly hopeless."
Maybe I should remove the word "nearly" from "nearly hopeless". :)
Generally, dangerous or formidable are the sweet spots for a scene challenge.
Shawn Tomkin Nearly hopeless is accurate, I should've taken that more to heart!
ReplyDelete