A shortish post about basic probabilities in Ironsworn.
A shortish post about basic probabilities in Ironsworn. TL;DR - you always have at least a 50% chance of some kind of success. If you want to meta-game, and can't use your best stats, make moves to build momentum.
At the end I talk briefly about the "fail forward" principle. If your fiction suggests sub-optimal moves, take it! Failure is definitely the most interesting way to drive the fiction forward (and especially, especially in solo campaigns).
https://phophosolo.home.blog/2019/01/10/basic-probability-in-ironsworn/
At the end I talk briefly about the "fail forward" principle. If your fiction suggests sub-optimal moves, take it! Failure is definitely the most interesting way to drive the fiction forward (and especially, especially in solo campaigns).
https://phophosolo.home.blog/2019/01/10/basic-probability-in-ironsworn/
Isn't it specified somewhere in the rules that you can't have an action score higher than 10 ? So, 6+5 = 10 ?
ReplyDeleteOh, you're right - it's on p8. I might update my post to suit, then.
ReplyDeleteI updated my post and the statistics. This reduces the likelihood of a strong hit at +5 to 56%, and increases the likelihood of a weak hit to 35%. Within the precision of the table, the likelihood of a miss doesn't actually change.
ReplyDeleteGreat post, Marcus Shepherd. There's always been questions about the math behind Ironsworn, so it's good to see it written up. And kudos for figuring it out via brute force! I had to rely on online dice scripts.
ReplyDelete